Charlie Burrus's NCAA Football Computer Rankings

Final Rankings (as of January 8):

RankTeamRecordIndex
1LSU12-2106.37
2West Virginia11-2103.75
3USC11-2101.62
4Georgia11-299.71
5Missouri12-294.82
6Oregon9-492.36
7Florida9-491.81
8Ohio St.11-291.64
9Oklahoma11-390.44
10Virginia Tech11-388.36
11Kansas12-187.81
12BYU11-283.05
13Arizona St.10-382.04
14Cincinnati10-381.14
15Tennessee10-481.02
16Boston Coll.11-378.14
17Texas10-377.89
18South Florida9-477.53
19Auburn9-475.39
20Oregon St.9-474.15
21Clemson9-472.40
22Michigan9-471.29
23Penn St.9-469.87
24Illinois9-469.73
25Kentucky8-567.87
26Utah9-467.65
27Wake Forest9-467.11
28Hawaii12-165.02
29Texas Tech9-462.31
30Virginia9-461.96
31California7-661.92
32Arkansas8-561.83
33UCF10-461.80
34UCLA6-761.60
35Connecticut9-461.41
36Wisconsin9-460.36
37Alabama7-659.45
38Michigan St.7-659.12
39Boise St.10-358.69
40Air Force9-457.35
41Mississippi St.8-557.06
42Rutgers8-556.48
43South Carolina6-655.32
44Troy8-454.26
45Florida St.7-653.84
46Oklahoma St.7-652.48
47Tulsa10-452.05
48TCU8-552.03
49New Mexico9-451.77
50Purdue8-551.31
51Louisville6-651.31
52Texas A&M7-650.95
53Fresno St.9-450.42
54Arizona5-750.37
55East Carolina8-547.44
56Maryland6-746.07
57Georgia Tech7-644.31
58Colorado6-742.85
59Indiana7-641.44
60Pittsburgh5-740.82
61Kansas St.5-740.04
62Vanderbilt5-739.10
63Washington4-938.18
64Navy8-538.04
65Nebraska5-737.85
66Florida Atlantic8-537.55
67Ball St.7-637.37
68Washington St.5-737.36
69Bowling Green8-536.22
70Houston8-535.71
71Iowa6-635.26
72Cent. Michigan8-635.07
73Southern Miss7-633.63
74Miami (FL)5-730.56
75Northwestern6-630.55
76Stanford4-829.60
77N.C. State5-728.92
78Wyoming5-728.42
79LA Monroe6-625.93
80North Carolina4-825.54
81Ohio6-624.89
82Middle Tenn. St.5-724.34
83West. Kentucky7-523.40
84Nevada6-722.99
85Miami (OH)6-722.16
86W. Michigan5-721.70
87Memphis7-621.30
88Mississippi3-919.60
89Buffalo5-719.23
90Notre Dame3-917.81
91Iowa St.3-914.64
92UTEP4-814.39
93Louisiana Tech5-713.93
94San Diego St.4-813.77
95Arkansas St.4-713.29
96San Jose St.5-713.29
97Colorado St.3-913.25
98Toledo5-712.14
99Marshall3-910.43
100East. Michigan4-810.43
101Akron4-89.35
102UNLV2-106.23
103Temple4-86.08
104Tulane4-85.30
105Kent St.3-94.53
106Syracuse2-103.33
107New Mexico St.4-92.96
108Rice3-91.74
109LA Lafayette3-91.50
110Baylor3-91.07
111Army3-9-0.13
112Utah St.2-10-0.38
113Minnesota1-11-0.52
114Duke1-11-2.69
115UAB2-10-4.69
116North Texas2-10-6.51
117Northern Illinois2-10-7.48
118SMU1-11-9.32
119Florida Intl.1-11-12.75
120Idaho1-11-14.58


I started playing with computer football rankings about 5 years ago.  Here's what I learned:  you can make them say almost anything.  I started doing it thinking that I was going to find the ultimate correct way to rank the teams, but what I found is that there is almost an infinite number of fair ways to grade the teams, and the way that someone ends up judging which is best is just by looking at it and trying to see if it looks reasonable.  So here is the result of what I think is a pretty reasonable algorithm.  The rankings look only at the performance of a team; they do not look at potential. Strength of schedule and point spread are both taken into account, although there's a cap on the point spread to prevent blowouts from skewing the data too much.

By the way, I don't think that anyone's inability to accurately rank the teams means that there should be a college football playoff.  It's pretty much common knowledge that anything can happen in a game, meaning that the better team doesn't always win, so why would the best team always win a playoff?  That's one of the great things about sports and games:  there's always an element of chance, and the question of What if...?

Check out other college football rankings.

The following are pdf files that include the rankings of all Division IA teams, most recent results and most impressive results as of the date of the calculation (ie, the result that helped them the most in the rankings).  Also includes a ranking of the conferences.

Final Rankings as of January 8, 2008

Rankings as of December 3, 2007

Rankings as of November 26, 2007

Rankings as of November 19, 2007

Rankings as of November 12, 2007

Rankings as of November 5, 2007